Wednesday, July 16, 2008

We are neither winning nor losing the war in Iraq

It seems to me that much of the recent debate in this Presidential campaign hinges on whether you believe we are winning or losing the war in Iraq. The problem is that none of the Presidential candidates are willing to clearly define (perhaps because they can't) what victory or defeat would look like.

It is fundamentally misleading to use the phrase "we are winning", as Bush and McCain so often do, because this is not a basketball game with a set amount of time on the clock. There's no scoreboard to look at and see where we are relative to the opposition. This is in part because there is no organized opposition, just a collection of small bands of people who hate us.

So what does it mean, we are winning? My understanding is simply that "we are winning" means "we haven't left yet". Such statements make a misguided assumption that there are only two possible outcomes in Iraq, one called victory and the other called defeat. Let me assure you, NEITHER of these outcomes are viable.

Real, unadulterated 'victory' would mean a democratic Iraq free from sectarian violence, free from regional influences (read: Iran), and capable of providing critical services to all of it's people. We are about as far from this goal as the day that we invaded Iraq, possibly farther.

However, 'defeat' is an equally meaningless term. If we 'lose' in Iraq, our way of life here at home won't be effected. We won't lose our land. We won't fall under the yoke of a foreign government. In fact, in a worst-case scenario in Iraq, America itself is not under direct threat, despite what the Hawks might try to say. (Remember, those talking about creating a haven for terrorists are the same ones who said that Sadaam was harboring and sponsoring terrorism before 9/11.)

So I call on the candidates to stop talking in absolutes about winning and losing in Iraq. There are an infinity of possible scenarios to resolve and end this war. They ALL involve us pulling out troops out at some point, and they ALL involve some unpleasant consequences and side effects. Let's decide what's best on the basis of a comprehensive analysis of the situation, rather than who can say the word 'winning' in just the right way.

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